We combine quant analysis with field investigations.
The "n-dimentional" portfolio may include currencies, equities, bonds, commodities, derivatives and other instruments.
Certain currencies will outperform
Examples include unwinding of carry trades during distress, volatility in the yen, breaking of pegs such as with the RMB, and devaluation of debased currencies such as the Argentinean pesos and the Indian rupee.
Certain markets face headwinds due to poor demographics, high debt levels, and pork-barrel projects, even though they are near 20 year lows.
Look for potential further bottoming of certain stock markets during any financial turmoil. Many markets are cheap but can become cheaper. Some Eastern European curriencies have room to fall. EE foreign workers remittances are variable.
Many states in this realm are commodity dependent and will enter crisis levels as the commodity secular bull ends. Lending institutions exposed to the commodity sector will suffer.
Australia, New Zealand, etc.
Twin deficits and high debt levels despite commodity export revenues, coupled with China headwinds, would limit upside in certain parts of the world.
US implied sanctions, tighter monetary policy due to inflation, increasing debt levels particularly at provincial levels, softer demand from overseas, and an accumulation of some excesses (such as in the real estate sector) may lead to a further bear market.
Certain commodities may offer buying opportunities from time to time.
A global recession shock due to unsolved problems may possibly offer opportunities to buy food or energy at bargain prices.
Some attractive stock markets will bottom out or open up
Long term growth potential of certain markets in Asia and the Middle East needs monitoring.
Shorting opportunities in some markets with excesses
Some excesses are being built up which may result in substantial correction in certain asset classes and an opportunity to profit from being on the short side.
Evaluation of money flows, shifts in sentiment of market participants and past relationships between securities and asset classes; oversight of new trends and changes in developed, emerging, frontier and stagnant markets.